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Investors are increasingly bullish on US stocks, with a record 36% of respondents in Bank of America's December survey indicating an overweight position in equities, the highest in the survey's history. This shift coincides with a drop in cash allocation to 3.9% and a growing belief that the global economy will avoid a recession in 2025. Despite signs of persistent inflation, 33% of investors anticipate a "no landing" scenario, where growth remains strong without a significant decline in inflation.
U.S. stock indexes pulled back, with the S&P 500 down 0.4% and Nvidia's stock falling 1.2%, marking its eighth loss in nine days. Despite this, the S&P 500 is up nearly 27% for the year, buoyed by strong economic resilience and expectations of favorable policies from President-elect Trump. Bitcoin briefly surpassed $108,000 before retreating to around $106,500.
U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping about 0.7%, marking its eighth consecutive loss. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also declined around 0.5%, despite stronger-than-expected retail sales data showing a 0.7% increase in November.Investors are anticipating a 0.25% interest rate cut on Wednesday, which some believe could be the last for a while due to persistent inflation concerns. Meanwhile, Nvidia's shares fell over 2%, continuing a downward trend from its November peak, while Bitcoin prices briefly surpassed $108,000.
US stocks fell on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping about 0.6%, marking its eighth consecutive day of losses. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where a 0.25% interest rate cut is expected, while retail sales data showed a stronger-than-anticipated 0.7% increase in November. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.42%, reflecting cautious sentiment for next year.
Gold prices have surged 29% this year, with analysts predicting continued gains through 2025 as central banks increase their gold purchases, driven by diversification and geopolitical uncertainties. The IMF reports a revised expectation of 982 metric tons in gold acquisitions for 2023, with a further 900 metric tons anticipated in 2025. Lower interest rates and a weakening US dollar are expected to enhance gold's appeal, with prices projected to reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of next year.
Gold prices have surged 29% this year, with analysts predicting continued gains through 2025 as central banks increase their gold purchases, driven by diversification and geopolitical uncertainties. The IMF reports a revised expectation of 982 metric tons in gold acquisitions for the year, with a forecast of at least 900 metric tons in 2025. Additionally, anticipated interest rate cuts and a weakening US dollar are expected to further bolster gold's appeal, with prices projected to reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of next year.
U.S. stocks fell as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, with expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at 95.4%. Strong November retail sales, driven by vehicle purchases, slightly lowered rate-cut odds and indicated robust consumer strength, which may influence the Fed's future decisions. The likelihood of a pause in rate cuts at the January meeting has risen to nearly 80%.
European MP Sarah Knafo has called for the EU to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, opposing the European Central Bank's digital euro initiative. She argues that Bitcoin serves as a decentralized safeguard against inflation and poor monetary policies, citing El Salvador's successful adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender as a model for European nations to follow. Knafo warns that the ECB's digital euro could lead to excessive centralized control, advocating instead for financial independence through Bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the total to 100 basis points since September, with a 97% probability of this outcome. However, the Fed may pause further cuts in early 2025 due to stagnant price indices and robust economic growth, as indicated by a 3.3% growth forecast for Q4 and rising producer prices. The Composite PMI has also reached its highest level since March 2022, suggesting persistent inflation in the services sector.
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Global Bitcoin adoption is surging, with institutions and governments driving demand, potentially pushing its price to $850,000 by 2025. The limited supply of 21 million coins, coupled with significant institutional stockpiling and interest from governments as a hedge against fiat instability, is creating a supply shock. As Bitcoin's role as a digital reserve currency solidifies, retail investors face urgency to act, with current prices around $106,739.74.

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